Well it will be Bonds soon enough. He's 4 away from tying Aaron. So lets assume he passes him, finishes the season with 767 and retires. How long does he keep the title? Lets look at some challengers.
Sosa - Currently at 602 at age 38. Having a poor year, he won't get many more before retiring.
Griffey - Currently at 586 at age 37. He's having a very solid year, should pass 600. But even if he averaged 30 until he's 42 that would still leave him short. Obviously if he wants the record badly enough he may keep trying to play, but his injuries will eventually catch up to him again.
Thomas, Thome, Sheffield - All are about the same age (36-39) and around the same number of home runs (476-501). No chance.
Manny - At 481, age 35. Coming into this year, he's hit at least 33 HRs for the past 9 years, but this year he's on pace for about 20. If this is a true decline, then he's got no chance. If its just an aberation and he returns to normal for the next few years, well he still has almost no chance (although passing 600 is doable).
ARod - Now is where it gets interesting. He's at 494, and turns 32 this month. Lets say he cools off and finished this year with 50 HRs, putting his career total at 514. Lets assume the following number of HRs in the next few years. 40,40,35,30,30,25. I feel this is quite likely conservative, if he's healthy. That puts him (by my magical design) at age 38 with 714. Which means he'd catch Bonds about age 40. Of course, Bonds can make this more difficult by playing another season, but we'll come to that later. So if AROD is healthy, expect Bonds to have the title for about 8 seasons.
Pujols - The only other player with even a tiny probability right now. He's only 27 with 266 HRs. The problem is he's not hitting as well this year. If he keeps up the past few years pace, and not this years, we can talk some more in 5 years when he's AROD's age.
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