32 and counting

There are 32 days left in the baseball season so I think its time to discuss the playoffs. We've got some heated races (or at least races that are heating up). Lets start with the AL

At this point the division races are looking fairly tame in the AL. The Red Sox lead by 6 with 4 games remaining against the Yankees. If the Yanks go 4-0 over those games, then it could get interesting, but even 3-1 leaves Boston with a 4 game lead. So short of a remarkable collapse (see Phillies, 1964), the division is over.

In the central the Indians lead by 4 1/2 over the Tigers and the teams play 3 more games. The Indians have a slightly harder schedule with 4 games against the Angels, but Cleveland is a better team and I don't see them blowing this lead.

The west is completely over. The Angels lead by 5 and Seattle is a .500 team playing way above their heads.

The wild card could be interesting. The Yanks and Mariners are tied and the Tigers are 3 back. The 3 game series next week between the leaders will go a long way to deciding the outcome. But of these 3 the Yankees are the best team (I'll admit a little bias here) and their schedule has enough Royals and Devil Rays games that they should earn the WC.

The National League is much more wide open at this point. Mets lead the Phillies by 3 with 4 games remaining against them. They are both decent but not great teams. If the Phillies play a little bit better than usual or the Mets a little bit worse, it will go down to the wire.

In the central we have a battle of who can suck the least. Last year the Cardinals finished 5 games over .500, the 3rd worst in a full season for a division winner ever (1973 Mets at 82-79 and 2005 Padres at 82-80). The Rangers "won" the division in the strike shortened 1994 season 10 games UNDER .500. Its possible we'll see the division winner below .500, we can only hope. In reality its a crap shoot between the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals. The Cubs are probably the best, but not by much.

The NL West is techincally a 4 team race with everyone except the Giants within 5.5 games. But in reality, San Diego is the best team and is tied with Arizona which has the same issues as the Mariners, playing way above their head. I expect them to regress towards 0.500. So can the Dodgers or Rockies catch the Padres? I doubt it.

Given that I think the Padres with the division, we have the Diamondbacks, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers and Rockies as serious WC threats. The Diamondbacks will go away shortly. The other 4 are all close at just like last year, it will go down to the final weekend.

So get ready for some exciting baseball in the next 4 1/2 weeks.