There are 32 days left in the baseball season so I think its time to discuss the playoffs. We've got some heated races (or at least races that are heating up). Lets start with the AL
At this point the division races are looking fairly tame in the AL. The Red Sox lead by 6 with 4 games remaining against the Yankees. If the Yanks go 4-0 over those games, then it could get interesting, but even 3-1 leaves Boston with a 4 game lead. So short of a remarkable collapse (see Phillies, 1964), the division is over.
In the central the Indians lead by 4 1/2 over the Tigers and the teams play 3 more games. The Indians have a slightly harder schedule with 4 games against the Angels, but Cleveland is a better team and I don't see them blowing this lead.
The west is completely over. The Angels lead by 5 and Seattle is a .500 team playing way above their heads.
The wild card could be interesting. The Yanks and Mariners are tied and the Tigers are 3 back. The 3 game series next week between the leaders will go a long way to deciding the outcome. But of these 3 the Yankees are the best team (I'll admit a little bias here) and their schedule has enough Royals and Devil Rays games that they should earn the WC.
The National League is much more wide open at this point. Mets lead the Phillies by 3 with 4 games remaining against them. They are both decent but not great teams. If the Phillies play a little bit better than usual or the Mets a little bit worse, it will go down to the wire.
In the central we have a battle of who can suck the least. Last year the Cardinals finished 5 games over .500, the 3rd worst in a full season for a division winner ever (1973 Mets at 82-79 and 2005 Padres at 82-80). The Rangers "won" the division in the strike shortened 1994 season 10 games UNDER .500. Its possible we'll see the division winner below .500, we can only hope. In reality its a crap shoot between the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals. The Cubs are probably the best, but not by much.
The NL West is techincally a 4 team race with everyone except the Giants within 5.5 games. But in reality, San Diego is the best team and is tied with Arizona which has the same issues as the Mariners, playing way above their head. I expect them to regress towards 0.500. So can the Dodgers or Rockies catch the Padres? I doubt it.
Given that I think the Padres with the division, we have the Diamondbacks, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers and Rockies as serious WC threats. The Diamondbacks will go away shortly. The other 4 are all close at just like last year, it will go down to the final weekend.
So get ready for some exciting baseball in the next 4 1/2 weeks.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Monday, August 27, 2007
Serves and Volleys
Its a grand August day as the US Open begins. I won't be able to make it to Flushing this year, but I'll watch plenty on TV and will be following the ticker when away from a TV. So without furhter ado, here are some things I expect or hope to see:
1) Federer should cruise into the finals. Roddick, Blake and Davydenko are not incredibly tough foes.
2) Now that electronic line calling (at least for challenges) has been around for a year, we're seeing players use it a little bit better. I think the challenge system is a good thing for tennis, even with its potential for abuse.
3) Even with Djokovic's strong early draw, I like him to go far, at least to the semis.
4) This point has nothing to do specifically with the US Open, but I think mixed doubles is a strange event. I couldn't think of any other professional sport where men and women played together. I'm not saying they should have the event, just that I won't be wathcing it.
5) Watching tennis in HD is fantastic.
6) Keep an eye on some of the young American men's entries. Sam Querrey has already shown he can beat decent players and could advance a couple of rounds. Donald Young (18) and John Isner (22) have shown some potential. I doubt either will go very far, but they'll be fun to watch. (UPDATE: Young dropped the first set in a tiebreaker, but is up a break in the second).
7) If you're looking for a place to discuss tennis or compete in a wide range of contests, I recommend this website, although its too late to enter for this tournament.
8) Blake has the potential to reach the semifinals. I say potential because there is a lot of variance in how he plays from day to day. But there is no one in his 1/4 of a bracket that he couldn't beat. He's played well this summer saving his ranking a bit.
9) A lot was made of the fact that Wimbledon began paying its men's and women's players equally, something the US Open has done for a while. The payouts should be based on how much revenue the draw earns. This is impossible to accurately calculate, but I'd imagine that the men's matches being best of 5 rather than best of 3 for the women should last longer and earn more money. Of course, there is a huge PR benefit of keeping the pay equal that is more important than a few hunderd thousand dollars.
10) And lastly I need to state that the US Open is my favorite tournament of the year. This is partly due to the fact that growing up, my dad and I would go every year. But its also driven by the fact that due to time zones (I live in Philadelphia) I get to watch more of this tournemant than any other grand slam. So for the next 2 weeks (or 1 fortnight if you prefer) I will sit back and enjoy some great tennis.
1) Federer should cruise into the finals. Roddick, Blake and Davydenko are not incredibly tough foes.
2) Now that electronic line calling (at least for challenges) has been around for a year, we're seeing players use it a little bit better. I think the challenge system is a good thing for tennis, even with its potential for abuse.
3) Even with Djokovic's strong early draw, I like him to go far, at least to the semis.
4) This point has nothing to do specifically with the US Open, but I think mixed doubles is a strange event. I couldn't think of any other professional sport where men and women played together. I'm not saying they should have the event, just that I won't be wathcing it.
5) Watching tennis in HD is fantastic.
6) Keep an eye on some of the young American men's entries. Sam Querrey has already shown he can beat decent players and could advance a couple of rounds. Donald Young (18) and John Isner (22) have shown some potential. I doubt either will go very far, but they'll be fun to watch. (UPDATE: Young dropped the first set in a tiebreaker, but is up a break in the second).
7) If you're looking for a place to discuss tennis or compete in a wide range of contests, I recommend this website, although its too late to enter for this tournament.
8) Blake has the potential to reach the semifinals. I say potential because there is a lot of variance in how he plays from day to day. But there is no one in his 1/4 of a bracket that he couldn't beat. He's played well this summer saving his ranking a bit.
9) A lot was made of the fact that Wimbledon began paying its men's and women's players equally, something the US Open has done for a while. The payouts should be based on how much revenue the draw earns. This is impossible to accurately calculate, but I'd imagine that the men's matches being best of 5 rather than best of 3 for the women should last longer and earn more money. Of course, there is a huge PR benefit of keeping the pay equal that is more important than a few hunderd thousand dollars.
10) And lastly I need to state that the US Open is my favorite tournament of the year. This is partly due to the fact that growing up, my dad and I would go every year. But its also driven by the fact that due to time zones (I live in Philadelphia) I get to watch more of this tournemant than any other grand slam. So for the next 2 weeks (or 1 fortnight if you prefer) I will sit back and enjoy some great tennis.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Frank's weekly rants
I've decided to start a new type of post, called Frank's weekly rants. It will mostly consist of me bitching about something that annoys me. Don't know yet if it will be every week or not. Do you have something that annoys you? Please share.
I am utterly amazed at the lack of office kitchen ettiquite. I bring in food to mircowave about twice a week. When I get to the microwave I put my food in (or wait in line if there are people already) and when its done I REMOVE THE FOOD FROM THE MICROWAVE. Of course, its common at my office for people to leave food in the microwave more than 5 minutes after its done warming up. Thats right, people will set the microwave for 2 minutes and then show up anywhere from 3-10 minutes later. Not only is this incredibly inconsiderate, its stupid. Your food will be cold.
You know what pisses me off? Ribbons on cars. Now don't get me wrong, I'm all for people supporting whatever cause they want. But on my drive into work this morning, I was behind this truck. And how many ribbons did the truck have? Not 1, not 2, but FIFTEEN! There may have been more I couldn't see. This annoys the hell out of me. So I'm hereby instituting the Frank rule of ribbons. No vehicle may have more than 2 ribbons and if you have 2 ribbons they must not be duplicates.
I was listening to a concert announcement on the radio and heard the DJ explain that tickets purchased at the Wachovia Center are better than those purchased over the internet since they do not have a convenience charge. This seems very counterintuitive. Computer does the work, charge people. Person does the work, don't charge people. Apparently computers have a tougher job. Also, I'm starting to get really fed up with the blurred security letters that Ticketmaster makes you enter to ensure that you're not a computer. Its gotten to the point where I can only figure out about 1/2 of them.
I am utterly amazed at the lack of office kitchen ettiquite. I bring in food to mircowave about twice a week. When I get to the microwave I put my food in (or wait in line if there are people already) and when its done I REMOVE THE FOOD FROM THE MICROWAVE. Of course, its common at my office for people to leave food in the microwave more than 5 minutes after its done warming up. Thats right, people will set the microwave for 2 minutes and then show up anywhere from 3-10 minutes later. Not only is this incredibly inconsiderate, its stupid. Your food will be cold.
You know what pisses me off? Ribbons on cars. Now don't get me wrong, I'm all for people supporting whatever cause they want. But on my drive into work this morning, I was behind this truck. And how many ribbons did the truck have? Not 1, not 2, but FIFTEEN! There may have been more I couldn't see. This annoys the hell out of me. So I'm hereby instituting the Frank rule of ribbons. No vehicle may have more than 2 ribbons and if you have 2 ribbons they must not be duplicates.
I was listening to a concert announcement on the radio and heard the DJ explain that tickets purchased at the Wachovia Center are better than those purchased over the internet since they do not have a convenience charge. This seems very counterintuitive. Computer does the work, charge people. Person does the work, don't charge people. Apparently computers have a tougher job. Also, I'm starting to get really fed up with the blurred security letters that Ticketmaster makes you enter to ensure that you're not a computer. Its gotten to the point where I can only figure out about 1/2 of them.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Hip hip Jorge!!
If I asked 100 baseball fans who was the best catcher in baseball right now I bet very few would say Jorge Posada, but he's somewhat quietly having his best hitting season ever. His OBP is .415 and he's slugging .536!! This gives him a higher OPS that players like Vlad Guerrero and Ryan Howard catching. He's currently at 13th best in the majors (tied with David Ortiz for 7th if you look at OPS+).
Of course, he's been one of the best hitting catchers since he got the starting role over 10 years ago. The question is, does he have the credentials, given a few more years and a reasonable decline, to make the hall of fame?
There are 14 HOFers that were primarily catchers. 3 played in the 19th century, so I won't consider these since the game was quite different. The remaining 11 are Cochrane, Dickey, Hartnett, Schalk, Campanella, Berra, Ferrell, Lombardi, Bench, Fisk, and Carter. I'll go ahead an assume Piazza and Rodriguez get in and include them in the comparison.
First, lets start with games caught. I'll note here, that Ivan Rogriduez has caught a LOT of games, 2032 to be exact. If he plays until 2009 he could break Fisk's record of 2226 games caught. (I'm not 100% sure on this record, but I think its right). Of course, he's not playing well so that is no guarantee. Jorge has 1321 games caught, which means he'd need to catch until the end of 2010 to reach about a median level for a HOF catcher. This is doable, but he'll be 38 at that point and catching will eventually take its toll.
Second, hitting. In this regard he is right up there with the best hitting catchers with the exception of Piazza who is head and shoulders above everyone else. His OPS+ for a career is 125, right in line with Bench (126), Dickey (127), Berra (125) and Campanella (124). He's yet to hit a decline phase in his career, but given that he's currently having his best season, his decline may be later than some others.
The third issue is obviously fielding, which I don't want to go into because its very difficult to measure a catcher's defensive abilities because putouts are useless, calling a game is difficult to judge, passed balls are highly dependent on the pitchers, etc. I've heard talk about Jorge being below average for a catcher in terms of calling a game, but I tend not to listen to baseball announcers as most of them are stupid.
The 4th issue, in my opinion, deals more with whether he WILL make the HOF rather than whether he SHOULD make the HOF. That is of course postseason success. He's won 3 rings (only played 8 games in 1996 and not on that postseason roster), which is worth a little bit of boost to him.
So in conclusion, Jorge Posada is not currently a HOFer, but he could be. Besides catching for 4-5 more years, he needs a decent decline hitting wise since I don't think he's getting bonus points for fielding. As one of my favorite Yankees I'll be cheering for him.
UPDATE - Apparently Tom Verducci must read my blog because there is an article today on CNNSI about the great year Posada is having.
Of course, he's been one of the best hitting catchers since he got the starting role over 10 years ago. The question is, does he have the credentials, given a few more years and a reasonable decline, to make the hall of fame?
There are 14 HOFers that were primarily catchers. 3 played in the 19th century, so I won't consider these since the game was quite different. The remaining 11 are Cochrane, Dickey, Hartnett, Schalk, Campanella, Berra, Ferrell, Lombardi, Bench, Fisk, and Carter. I'll go ahead an assume Piazza and Rodriguez get in and include them in the comparison.
First, lets start with games caught. I'll note here, that Ivan Rogriduez has caught a LOT of games, 2032 to be exact. If he plays until 2009 he could break Fisk's record of 2226 games caught. (I'm not 100% sure on this record, but I think its right). Of course, he's not playing well so that is no guarantee. Jorge has 1321 games caught, which means he'd need to catch until the end of 2010 to reach about a median level for a HOF catcher. This is doable, but he'll be 38 at that point and catching will eventually take its toll.
Second, hitting. In this regard he is right up there with the best hitting catchers with the exception of Piazza who is head and shoulders above everyone else. His OPS+ for a career is 125, right in line with Bench (126), Dickey (127), Berra (125) and Campanella (124). He's yet to hit a decline phase in his career, but given that he's currently having his best season, his decline may be later than some others.
The third issue is obviously fielding, which I don't want to go into because its very difficult to measure a catcher's defensive abilities because putouts are useless, calling a game is difficult to judge, passed balls are highly dependent on the pitchers, etc. I've heard talk about Jorge being below average for a catcher in terms of calling a game, but I tend not to listen to baseball announcers as most of them are stupid.
The 4th issue, in my opinion, deals more with whether he WILL make the HOF rather than whether he SHOULD make the HOF. That is of course postseason success. He's won 3 rings (only played 8 games in 1996 and not on that postseason roster), which is worth a little bit of boost to him.
So in conclusion, Jorge Posada is not currently a HOFer, but he could be. Besides catching for 4-5 more years, he needs a decent decline hitting wise since I don't think he's getting bonus points for fielding. As one of my favorite Yankees I'll be cheering for him.
UPDATE - Apparently Tom Verducci must read my blog because there is an article today on CNNSI about the great year Posada is having.
300 (not the Spartans)
We've recently had a lot of baseball milestones, as Bonds tied Hank Aaron in HRs, ARod hit his 500th HR (the youngest ever to do this) and Glavine notches his 300th win. This is a great convergence of accomplishments and is lots of fun for me as a fan.
But there is a problem. We now are forced to deal with lots of questions of "Will anyone ever get 300 wins again????".
This question bothers me. A lot. The answer of course is yes. And if the question sounds familiar its because this type of question is asked lots of times, but people don't learn. After Nolan Ryan reached 300, people wondered if anyone would ever reach 300 wins in the days of 5 man rotations and extended bullpen use. Well 3 players have done it in the last 5 years.
Even assuming the old guys who are close (Johnson, Mussina, etc.) all fall short, the next crop of young guys will most likely produce a 300 game winner. Consider that there are lots of pitchers on about the same pace as glavine. I'm talking about players such as Sabathia, Hudson, Santana, Oswalt, Zito, etc. Its probably a good bet that at least a couple of these pitchers will get close. Then if they are willing to play into their 40s, and with improving pitcher longevity this is highly possible, we'll see another 300 game winner. And if bad luck hits that crop of players, they next crop will get it done.
You can say that given the current state of baseball we will never see a 500 game winner or 35 wins in a season, but please please please don't say stupid things about 300 game winners.
But there is a problem. We now are forced to deal with lots of questions of "Will anyone ever get 300 wins again????".
This question bothers me. A lot. The answer of course is yes. And if the question sounds familiar its because this type of question is asked lots of times, but people don't learn. After Nolan Ryan reached 300, people wondered if anyone would ever reach 300 wins in the days of 5 man rotations and extended bullpen use. Well 3 players have done it in the last 5 years.
Even assuming the old guys who are close (Johnson, Mussina, etc.) all fall short, the next crop of young guys will most likely produce a 300 game winner. Consider that there are lots of pitchers on about the same pace as glavine. I'm talking about players such as Sabathia, Hudson, Santana, Oswalt, Zito, etc. Its probably a good bet that at least a couple of these pitchers will get close. Then if they are willing to play into their 40s, and with improving pitcher longevity this is highly possible, we'll see another 300 game winner. And if bad luck hits that crop of players, they next crop will get it done.
You can say that given the current state of baseball we will never see a 500 game winner or 35 wins in a season, but please please please don't say stupid things about 300 game winners.
Records records everywhere (part II)
Well, its been almost a month since I last discussed season records and lots has happened. Lets revisit.
AB & PA - Jimmy Rollins is still on pace for 710 ABs (705 is record) but only 772 PAs (773 is the record). The loss of Utely and Victorino from the lineup has probably lead to fewer chances, plus he has sometimes been batting 3rd instead of 1st since Utley's injury. He still has a chance though, but I'll lower it to 15%.
2B - Utley's injury has put an end to this chase. (pun intended)
K (batter) - Adam Dunn has for some reason, stopped striking out as much. But have no fear, beacuse Ryan Howard has picked up the slack. He is currently on pace for over 200, despite missing about 15 games earlier this season. Truly remarkable. Probability = 20%
SF - Well, I jinxed Carlos Lee, he has gotten ZERO SFs since my post. Sorry baseball world. Probability = 0%
GIDP - Orlando Hudson has also gotten exactly ZERO GIDPs since my post. Hmmm, this is strange. Anyway, Ryan Zimmerman leads the league with 24, but he's got almost no chance at the record.
SV - None of the leaders have kept up their pace, which was not good enough at the time, so I'll lower this one to 0% as well.
Well folks, its been a disappointing month for records, but Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins still have a fighting chance, so lets cross our fingers. Interestingly, their chances are highly correlated, since both need PAs for the record.
AB & PA - Jimmy Rollins is still on pace for 710 ABs (705 is record) but only 772 PAs (773 is the record). The loss of Utely and Victorino from the lineup has probably lead to fewer chances, plus he has sometimes been batting 3rd instead of 1st since Utley's injury. He still has a chance though, but I'll lower it to 15%.
2B - Utley's injury has put an end to this chase. (pun intended)
K (batter) - Adam Dunn has for some reason, stopped striking out as much. But have no fear, beacuse Ryan Howard has picked up the slack. He is currently on pace for over 200, despite missing about 15 games earlier this season. Truly remarkable. Probability = 20%
SF - Well, I jinxed Carlos Lee, he has gotten ZERO SFs since my post. Sorry baseball world. Probability = 0%
GIDP - Orlando Hudson has also gotten exactly ZERO GIDPs since my post. Hmmm, this is strange. Anyway, Ryan Zimmerman leads the league with 24, but he's got almost no chance at the record.
SV - None of the leaders have kept up their pace, which was not good enough at the time, so I'll lower this one to 0% as well.
Well folks, its been a disappointing month for records, but Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins still have a fighting chance, so lets cross our fingers. Interestingly, their chances are highly correlated, since both need PAs for the record.
Return of the blog
I've been away from a computer a lot lately which has led to less blogging. Hopefully I will catch up soon. We recently travelled to Ireland. You can see some pics or a video of a traditional Irish session.
There are of course some interesting things I learned in Ireland.
1) Ireland is in fact very green. Our weather was mostly good, but a couple of days they had a misting sort of rain. This helps keep lots of green things growing.
2) While the Irish beers are very good, I was surprised to see crappy American beers (Bud/Miller/Coors) on tap in almost every pub. And even though I did not see many people drinking them, I cried a little on the inside.
3) This was my first trip to an english speaking country in Europe and I learned that what they said about the Irish being friendly and talkative is definitely true. When you bounce around (or crawl) from pub to pub, you meet a lot of interesting people.
4) I did not do any driving, but I was trying to navigate the Irish roads. And its very weird to sit in the passengers seat on the left side.
5) We ate a "full irish breakfast" in 4 hotels. They were good, but all exactly alike.
6) Irish cities are very small. Dublin is the only place where taking a cab could even be considered. You can pretty much walk from one end of Galway to the other in 15 minutes.
There are of course some interesting things I learned in Ireland.
1) Ireland is in fact very green. Our weather was mostly good, but a couple of days they had a misting sort of rain. This helps keep lots of green things growing.
2) While the Irish beers are very good, I was surprised to see crappy American beers (Bud/Miller/Coors) on tap in almost every pub. And even though I did not see many people drinking them, I cried a little on the inside.
3) This was my first trip to an english speaking country in Europe and I learned that what they said about the Irish being friendly and talkative is definitely true. When you bounce around (or crawl) from pub to pub, you meet a lot of interesting people.
4) I did not do any driving, but I was trying to navigate the Irish roads. And its very weird to sit in the passengers seat on the left side.
5) We ate a "full irish breakfast" in 4 hotels. They were good, but all exactly alike.
6) Irish cities are very small. Dublin is the only place where taking a cab could even be considered. You can pretty much walk from one end of Galway to the other in 15 minutes.
Friday, August 3, 2007
Steroids do not equal good baseball.
In case you wanted proof against the effect of performance enhancing drugs there is this article. I mean seriously, Neifi Perez?!?!?!
By the way, since 1901, for players with at least 1400 games played, Neifi Perez has the 2nd worst OPS+ of all time, at 63. The worst is 57 by Dal Maxvill. In addition, for a player with 4700 plate appearances, the worst OPS+ is our favorite crappy shortstop, Perez. He's had 5510 PAs. How has he managed to stretch out a career of 11 years and 5 teams. I mean, he did win a gold glove in 2000, so that must make him the incredible!!!! By the way, Ski Millelo had an OPS+ of 63 with 5536 PAs. We've found Neifi's equal.
Is Neifi Perez the worst player in baseball history??? No. But if we're considering players who have played in the majors for a significant amount of time, the debate starts (and possible ends) with Neifi. There are plenty of terrible players throughout baseball history, but how many can be very bad and last for so long (and earn $18 million !!).
Those who know me will know I've always disliked Neifi, so the fact that he's now suspended for drug use is really exciting for me. If this isn't proof that steroids are not magical pills that make you a hall of famer, I don't know what is.
By the way, since 1901, for players with at least 1400 games played, Neifi Perez has the 2nd worst OPS+ of all time, at 63. The worst is 57 by Dal Maxvill. In addition, for a player with 4700 plate appearances, the worst OPS+ is our favorite crappy shortstop, Perez. He's had 5510 PAs. How has he managed to stretch out a career of 11 years and 5 teams. I mean, he did win a gold glove in 2000, so that must make him the incredible!!!! By the way, Ski Millelo had an OPS+ of 63 with 5536 PAs. We've found Neifi's equal.
Is Neifi Perez the worst player in baseball history??? No. But if we're considering players who have played in the majors for a significant amount of time, the debate starts (and possible ends) with Neifi. There are plenty of terrible players throughout baseball history, but how many can be very bad and last for so long (and earn $18 million !!).
Those who know me will know I've always disliked Neifi, so the fact that he's now suspended for drug use is really exciting for me. If this isn't proof that steroids are not magical pills that make you a hall of famer, I don't know what is.
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Adventures in the Rockies
I just got back from a conference in Salt Lake City, which explains the lack of posts recently. Some interesting musings:
1) I got to check out the AAA Salt Lake Bees, an Angels affiliate. The stadium was nothing special. It was very hot, so almost everyone sat in the shade. They had a few local microbrews that I got to try. The biggest problem I had was that most concession stands were closed in the middle of the 5th when I went up to get food. I know sporting events cut off alcohol sales after a certain point, but food sales? The best part about the park was the beautiful view of the Rockies in the background. I'll post a pic when I get a chance.
2) Salt Lake City, at least the part that I frequented, seems to have a lot of homeless. It appeared to be more than Philadelphia, although by no means was I counting. Also, when asked for money from a homeless person, many people intuitively assume the person is just looking to buy alcohol. I often assume this myself. Well I passed a homeless person in Salt Lake City who specifically asked for money to buy whiskey. While I did not give him any, I applaud the honesty.
3) There is a brewpub in the city called Squatters Pub. Overall, their food and beer are not that great (another brewpub called Red Rock was better). However, they do have a beer called Polygamy Porter. The slogan on the tap handle was "You can't have just one".
4) The conference was on statistics and had a few sections on statistics in sports, the majority on baseball. I was only able to make it to one of these talks, by a UPenn professor trying to predict the number of HRs a player will hit by training his model on about 15 years worth of data. He claimed that if you assume that plate appearances are known (and therefore he's only predicting HR rate) his root mean squared error was less than 5. However, going into a season the PAs are unknown and would need to be modelled as well, he had not done this yet. An interesting talk, although I think his model left room for improvement. I need to find some free time to work on such a project.
5) I got to do some hiking up on some of the Alta ski resort trails. There is a small road only open in the summer that leads you to the top of one of the ski lifts and you can climb from there. The views were gorgeous, but we did not make it to the peak as the rain and lightning started. I did see a bolt of lightning hit on the mountainside facing us and lead to a big red flash. A little scary since it was not far from us, but very cool to see.
1) I got to check out the AAA Salt Lake Bees, an Angels affiliate. The stadium was nothing special. It was very hot, so almost everyone sat in the shade. They had a few local microbrews that I got to try. The biggest problem I had was that most concession stands were closed in the middle of the 5th when I went up to get food. I know sporting events cut off alcohol sales after a certain point, but food sales? The best part about the park was the beautiful view of the Rockies in the background. I'll post a pic when I get a chance.
2) Salt Lake City, at least the part that I frequented, seems to have a lot of homeless. It appeared to be more than Philadelphia, although by no means was I counting. Also, when asked for money from a homeless person, many people intuitively assume the person is just looking to buy alcohol. I often assume this myself. Well I passed a homeless person in Salt Lake City who specifically asked for money to buy whiskey. While I did not give him any, I applaud the honesty.
3) There is a brewpub in the city called Squatters Pub. Overall, their food and beer are not that great (another brewpub called Red Rock was better). However, they do have a beer called Polygamy Porter. The slogan on the tap handle was "You can't have just one".
4) The conference was on statistics and had a few sections on statistics in sports, the majority on baseball. I was only able to make it to one of these talks, by a UPenn professor trying to predict the number of HRs a player will hit by training his model on about 15 years worth of data. He claimed that if you assume that plate appearances are known (and therefore he's only predicting HR rate) his root mean squared error was less than 5. However, going into a season the PAs are unknown and would need to be modelled as well, he had not done this yet. An interesting talk, although I think his model left room for improvement. I need to find some free time to work on such a project.
5) I got to do some hiking up on some of the Alta ski resort trails. There is a small road only open in the summer that leads you to the top of one of the ski lifts and you can climb from there. The views were gorgeous, but we did not make it to the peak as the rain and lightning started. I did see a bolt of lightning hit on the mountainside facing us and lead to a big red flash. A little scary since it was not far from us, but very cool to see.
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