9999!!!

With a win on Sunday going into the All-Star break, the Phillies have avoided the dreaded loss for a few more days. Unless the Phillies sweep, the Cardinals will hand the Phillies their 10,000th loss.

For those who are curious, their first loss was on May 1, 1883, also at home to the Providence Grays, a team that folded in 1885. The score was 4-3. At the time, they were known as the Philadelphia Quakers. The Grays pitcher was Old Hoss Radbourn who is known for winning 59 games in 1884 (the most ever in one season). It helps that he started 73 games and finished all of them. In 1883, he only won 48 and I think 8 came against the Phillies, although box scores are not available, so I can't confirm this. I wonder if that is the most wins one pitcher has against the Phillies in a single season. If I had more time I'd try and figure it out.


at Home: 87.5 %
at LA: 10.94 %


7/13 vs. Cardinals 50.0 %
7/14 vs. Cardinals 25.0 %
7/15 vs. Cardinals 12.5 %
7/16 at Dodgers 6.25 %
7/17 at Dodgers 3.125 %
7/18 at Dodgers 1.562 %

Spain pics

Andrea and I recently took a trip to Spain. If you're interested, here are some pics.

Wimbledon

I got to watch some matches this morning before heading in to work. Djokovic was playing Hewitt and although I have not seen much of this him, Djokovic impresses me. He's only 20 (I think) and has climbed to #5 in the world, playing well on different surfaces. I would love to see a semifinal between him and Nadal. The two have met 4 times already this year, Nadal winning twice on clay and splitting the other two on a hard court.

Also, I know the Wimbledon tradition is not to play on the middle Sunday, but the results from this year will hopefully force them to change policies. 3rd round matches that should have been played last Saturday were not finished until yesterday (Wednesday). I understand that its hard to predict the rain sometimes, but if they get one more day of heavy rain, we'll be watching the men's final on Monday.

Thursday update on 10,000

Sitting at 9997, the Phils are off tonight and will play in Colorado this weekend. The loss at home is becoming more and more likely. Also, I'm taking the Nationals series off the board.

at Home: 52.452 %
at LA: 25.908 %
at Colorado: 12.064 %
at SD: 8.325 %


7/6 at Rockies 0%
7/7 at Rockies 0%
7/8 at Rockies 12.064 %
ALL STAR BREAK
7/13 vs. Cardinals 18.309 %
7/14 vs. Cardinals 18.524 %
7/15 vs. Cardinals 15.619 %
7/16 at Dodgers 11.852 %
7/17 at Dodgers 8.394 %
7/18 at Dodgers 5.662 %
7/19 at Padres 3.682 %
7/20 at Padres 2.329 %
7/21 at Padres 1.440 %
7/22 at Padres 0.874 %

9996

With a loss on Monday the Phils sit at 9996. At Colorado (and before the All-Star break) has jumped past San Diego.

Home: 46.22 %
LA: 25.53 %
Colorado: 18.0 %
SD: 10.16 %


7/3 at Astros 0 %
7/4 at Astros 0 %
7/6 at Rockies 0%
7/7 at Rockies 5.954 %
7/8 at Rockies 12.052 %
ALL STAR BREAK
7/13 vs. Cardinals 15.246 %
7/14 vs. Cardinals 15.430 %
7/15 vs. Cardinals 13.664 %
7/16 at Dodgers 11.063 %
7/17 at Dodgers 8.397 %
7/18 at Dodgers 6.070 %
7/19 at Padres 4.224 %
7/20 at Padres 2.850 %
7/21 at Padres 1.875 %
7/22 at Padres 1.207 %
7/24 vs. Nationals 0.764 %
7/25 vs. Nationals 0.476 %
7/26 vs. Nationals 0.292 %

Monday's update, at 9995.

A lousy weekend for the Phils bumps up the probabilities a bit

Home: 41.59 %
LA: 31.17 %
SD: 17.10 %
Colorado: 9.84 %

7/2 at Astros 0 %
7/3 at Astros 0 %
7/4 at Astros 0 %
7/6 at Rockies 0%
7/7 at Rockies 2.762%
7/8 at Rockies 7.074 %
ALL STAR BREAK
7/13 vs. Cardinals 10.869 %
7/14 vs. Cardinals 12.990 %
7/15 vs. Cardinals 13.307 %
7/16 at Dodgers 12.268 %
7/17 at Dodgers 10.473 %
7/18 at Dodgers 8.429 %
7/19 at Padres 6.476 %
7/20 at Padres 4.791 %
7/21 at Padres 3.436 %
7/22 at Padres 2.400 %
7/24 vs. Nationals 1.639 %
7/25 vs. Nationals 1.098 %
7/26 vs. Nationals 0.723 %

The meaning of 10,000

I've been thinking a bit about what exactly the upcoming 10,000th loss means to the Phillies. Obviously, its due in large part to being one of the oldest franchises. But several teams began about the same time (1883) and are not even close to the 10,000 mark, so there is a need for long term futility. A decade like the 1920s when the Phillies went 566-962 (0.370) probably didn't help either. And that wasn't even their worst 10 year stretch. From 1936 - 1945 they went 511 - 1016 (0.335), averaging OVER 100 LOSES! For comparison, the Devil Rays who are by no means known for their winning have averaged 97 loses through their first 9 years and thats with playing 8 more games a season. In the Devil Ray's worst season, they had a winning percentage of 0.342. The 1936-45 Phillies averaged worse than that.

So while this clearly indicates a franchise that has been bad for a while, I don't think its bad for Phillies fans to take note of this. In recent years, they have been a better team (>80 wins since 2001 I think), and maybe it will make them appreciate that the team no longer averages 100 losses a season and competes for the playoffs (at least the wild card). In reality, most fans will use it as an excuse to complain about the team and their futility (only 1 world series win).

Also, the Philly Inquirer had a interesting spread on the issue in Sunday's
paper.

10,000 update, 8 to go

The Phillies managed a win on Monday, a loss on Tuesday night when I was at the game and a 10th inning win last night. Probability of 10,000th loss at home is 36.4%, followed by 30.5 % at LA, 24.6% at San Diego.

By the way the Phillies are 0-3 this season when I'm attending Phillies games. They should pay me not to go.

6/29 vs. Mets 0 %
6/30 vs. Mets 0 %
7/1 vs. Mets 0 %
7/2 at Astros 0 %
7/3 at Astros 0 %
7/4 at Astros 0 %
7/6 at Rockies 0.596%
7/7 at Rockies 2.164%
7/8 at Rockies 4.493 %
ALL STAR BREAK
7/13 vs. Cardinals 6.996 %
7/14 vs. Cardinals 9.077%
7/15 vs. Cardinals 10.364 %
7/16 at Dodgers 10.757 %
7/17 at Dodgers 10.368 %
7/18 at Dodgers 9.417 %
7/19 at Padres 8.145 %
7/20 at Padres 6.674 %
7/21 at Padres 5.424 %
7/22 at Padres 4.223 %
7/24 vs. Nationals 3.203 %
7/25 vs. Nationals 2.375 %
7/26 vs. Nationals 1.726 %
7/27 vs. Pirates 1.231 %
7/28 vs. Pirates 0.865 %
7/29 vs. Pirates 0.598 %

(Edited after 1st game of Friday's DH)

10,000!!!

Well, the Phillies are fast approaching their 10,000th loss in franchise history. As of the morning of June 25th, they have 9991. For comparison, the Braves have the second most loses at 9677 and they started 7 years before the Phillies. As a baseball fan who loves round numbers, I feel this must be celebrated. Well celebrated might not be the right word, but you get the idea. So here is the upcoming Phillies schedule, along with the probability of each game being the lucky 10,000th (I'm taking the very simplistic probability of winning any game to be their current winning percentage (.520) regardless of who they're playing and where. I don't have the time to look at anything more realistic). So as of today, the chances of the 10,000th loss occurring at home is about 35.6 %. I'll keep this updated over the next few weeks.


6/26 vs. Reds 0 %
6/27 vs. Reds 0 %
6/28 vs. Reds 0 %
6/29 vs. Mets 0 %
6/30 vs. Mets 0 %
7/1 vs. Mets 0 %
7/2 at Astros 0 %
7/3 at Astros 0 %
7/4 at Astros 0.135 %
7/6 at Rockies 0.633 %
7/7 at Rockies 1.646 %
7/8 at Rockies 3.138 %
ALL STAR BREAK
7/13 vs. Cardinals 4.895 %
7/14 vs. Cardinals 6.619 %
7/15 vs. Cardinals 8.031 %
7/16 at Dodgers 8.948 %
7/17 at Dodgers 9.306 %
7/18 at Dodgers 9.141 %
7/19 at Padres 8.556 %
7/20 at Padres 7.685 %
7/21 at Padres 6.660 %
7/22 at Padres 5.594 %
7/24 vs. Nationals 4.571 %
7/25 vs. Nationals 3.645 %
7/26 vs. Nationals 2.843 %
7/27 vs. Pirates 2.174 %
7/28 vs. Pirates 1.633 %
7/29 vs. Pirates 1.207 %
7/30 at Cubs 0.878 %
7/31 at Cubs 0.631 %
8/1 at Cubs 0.447 %
8/2 at Cubs 0.314 %
8/3 at Brewers 0.217 %
8/4 at Brewers 0.149 %
8/5 at Brewers 0.101 %

Baseball Stadiums

I was reading an article about the construction of the new stadiums in New York and I got to thinking about what are the characteristics that I want in my ideal ballpark. I've been to about 12 or 13 major league parks and about 20 others (minors, college, Japaness, etc), so while I'm not the foremost expert, I have some experience. And as a side note, these are things the teams has some control over. I love attending games with knowledgable and passionate fans, but thats more difficult to control. Note that these are not in any order.






Wants:


1) Great views. This includes both the view of the game (e.g, no seats facing center field) and views outside the ballpark. Downtown views are very nice and PNC park is a great example.

2) Good food. There is nothing better than a hot dog at a game. But sometimes I want other options. Local favorites are encouraged (garlic fries in some west coast stadiums are great). And while we're at it, make sure the hot dogs have good available toppings.

3) Beer. I'm kind of a beer nut, and the only thing worse than paying $6-10 for a beer, is paying $6-10 for a Bud. With the prevalence of microbreweries in this country, every ballpark should have a wide variety of beer options, specifically local beers. Citizen's Bank Park (I live in Philly) is great for beer, Victory, Stoudts, Flying Fish, etc. These beers are found through the concourses, although sadly not yet with the roaming beer vendor.

4) Scoreboards. I like to keep score at a baseball game, and knowng basic information such as who is at bat, who is pitching, a players #, makes my life much easier. A good out of town scoreboard is a bonus, such as the ones that show not only the score, but the number of outs and baserunners.

5) Uniqueness. This is tough to define. I like ballparks with some unique characteristics, unlike the old cookie cutters. But there is a line between uniqueness (ivy in Wrigley) and just plain weird (a hill and a flagpole in the outfield). Sadly, the new "retro parks" designs are running out of ideas and copying each other.

6) Accessibility. Parking and public transportation access are key.

7) Feel of the city. Again, this one is tough to define, but I like a ballpark that has some characteristics of the city. This could be in the architecture or the layout or whatever.

8) Comfort. I'm not talking about luxury boxes or cushoned seats, but ballparks need certain minimal levels of comfort. The seats need to be wide enough and with enough leg room for me to sit in (one of the biggest downsides of Fenway). The concourses need to fit more than 2 people across.

9) Sense of history. A team should be acknowledging its past in some way. Monument park and Ashburn Alley are 2 great examples.

Don't wants:


1) Domes. Retractable roofs are ok, but under no circumstances should baseball be played indoors on a sunny day.




2) Artificial grass. No explanation necessary.

College World Series

The college world series starts today (in about 30 minutes to be exact). I always hated that college baseball does not get the coverage that college football and basketball receive. I always assumed this had to be caused by the fact that there were no pro football or basketball leagues early on (first 1/4 of 1900s) and so people followed the college games. This passion for the college sports just evolved into the current world. Baseball on the other hand originated from a professional game very early, so there was no need to turn to college. If you have other theories I'd be interested to hear them.

Anyway, all WS games are on ESPN (or the deuce), but very few regular season games are on TV. If you're a baseball junkie like me, its a great way to get your fix in February and March before the pros start.

The moral of the story is watch college baseball

Welcome

Welcome to Hot Dogs & Beer. This blog will be dedicated to the world of baseball and of course its accessories (hence the title). Of course I'm just as likely to post whatever else is on my mind.

Enjoy.