The Phillies managed a win on Monday, a loss on Tuesday night when I was at the game and a 10th inning win last night. Probability of 10,000th loss at home is 36.4%, followed by 30.5 % at LA, 24.6% at San Diego.
By the way the Phillies are 0-3 this season when I'm attending Phillies games. They should pay me not to go.
6/29 vs. Mets 0 %
6/30 vs. Mets 0 %
7/1 vs. Mets 0 %
7/2 at Astros 0 %
7/3 at Astros 0 %
7/4 at Astros 0 %
7/6 at Rockies 0.596%
7/7 at Rockies 2.164%
7/8 at Rockies 4.493 %
ALL STAR BREAK
7/13 vs. Cardinals 6.996 %
7/14 vs. Cardinals 9.077%
7/15 vs. Cardinals 10.364 %
7/16 at Dodgers 10.757 %
7/17 at Dodgers 10.368 %
7/18 at Dodgers 9.417 %
7/19 at Padres 8.145 %
7/20 at Padres 6.674 %
7/21 at Padres 5.424 %
7/22 at Padres 4.223 %
7/24 vs. Nationals 3.203 %
7/25 vs. Nationals 2.375 %
7/26 vs. Nationals 1.726 %
7/27 vs. Pirates 1.231 %
7/28 vs. Pirates 0.865 %
7/29 vs. Pirates 0.598 %
(Edited after 1st game of Friday's DH)
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If you look a little more closely (as you admit you didn't have time to do -- I had some time to waste), it looks like there's about a two-thirds probability that the 10,000th loss happens on the West Coast swing (or at least it looked that way on Wednesday morning). It helps that the Dodgers and Padres are both doing well and the Phillies will be on the road then. For numbers see here.
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